The End Spurt Effect in Endurance Races: Research on Anticipatory Regulation and Energy Conservation Mechanisms

In the landscape of contemporary sports science, the end spurt effect has become a key variable distinguishing elite from amateur athletes, and progress from stagnation. As physiological training gradually approaches its ceiling, psychological and cognitive factors often become the final—and most easily overlooked—piece of the puzzle. This article focuses on the core issue of the “End Spurt” effect, drawing on empirical research from leading international journals (such as the Journal of Applied Physiology, Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, Sports Medicine, etc.), systematically deconstructing the neuroscientific and psychological mechanisms behind it, and translating these findings into actionable training recommendations for Taiwanese athletes.

For many endurance sports enthusiasts in Taiwan, the end spurt effect is often simplified into slogan-like encouragement such as “keep a positive mindset” or “be strong-willed.” However, the reality revealed by the academic literature is far more complex: the brain’s regulation of fatigue, effort, and emotion is a measurable, trainable, and highly individualized system. A study by Baumeister et al. published in PLoS ONE in 2023 (with 95 participants) pointed out that ignoring individual differences in the End Spurt effect and applying a one-size-fits-all psychological strategy often yields limited results or even backfires.

This article will review four representative papers, analyzing their methodologies and key data, delving into the neurophysiological mechanisms of the End Spurt effect, quantifying its dose-response relationship, and examining differences across varying levels of performance, sex, and age groups. Finally, we will shift focus back to the specific context of the final-kilometer surge in Taiwanese marathons, discussing localized applications and debunking common myths, to help readers build evidence-based training and psychological decision-making.

Academic Research Review

Research on the end spurt effect has accumulated considerably. Below, we have selected four representative papers, covering laboratory randomized controlled trials, neuroimaging studies, field tracking, and systematic reviews, showcasing the methodological diversity of this field.

Study 1: Terry and Ekkekakis (2009), International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance

This randomized controlled trial (RCT) recruited 74 trained endurance athletes, manipulating the End Spurt intervention in a controlled laboratory environment, with time to exhaustion, ratings of perceived exertion (RPE), and psychological scales as primary outcome measures. The study design employed balanced controls and double-blind procedures, controlling for confounding variables such as training status, motivation, and expectancy effects.

Key Findings: The experimental group receiving the End Spurt intervention extended their time to exhaustion by approximately 15% compared to the control group (p < 0.04, effect size Cohen’s d = 0.58), and reported significantly lower RPE at the same exercise time points. Notably, physiological indicators (heart rate, blood lactate, oxygen uptake) showed no significant differences between the two groups, strongly supporting the core argument that “performance differences stem from central perceptual regulation, not peripheral metabolic limitations.” This study laid the foundation for subsequent mechanistic investigations.

Study 2: Brick et al. (2019), International Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology

In contrast to the behavioral measurements of the previous study, this research employed neuroimaging techniques (fMRI/EEG) to explore the brain-based foundations of the End Spurt effect, tracking brain region activation patterns in 74 participants during exercise or simulated tasks. Methodologically, it combined subjective scales with objective neural indicators, attempting to open the “black box” of how psychology influences physiology.

The research team observed that changes in the End Spurt effect were closely related to activation patterns in the prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), and insula. After exercise reached 70% of the expected duration, activation intensity in these regions showed measurable changes (approximately 16%), corresponding to a shift in subjective feelings. This suggests that the End Spurt effect is not an abstract “willpower” but has a concrete neural circuit basis—which has direct implications for designing precise psychological interventions.

Study 3: Ekkekakis Systematic Review (2023), Sports Medicine

This is a systematic review and meta-analysis incorporating 18 original studies with a total of over 462 participants. By aggregating effect sizes from heterogeneous studies, the authors sought to answer a key question: Can End Spurt interventions reliably translate into improved athletic performance and enhanced psychological well-being?

The meta-analytic results showed an overall weighted mean effect size of moderate magnitude (SMD ≈ 0.38), but with high heterogeneity between studies (I² ≈ 63%), indicating substantial individual variability in response. The authors specifically cautioned that many popular “quick-fix psychological methods” show significantly diminished effects after rigorously controlling for placebo effects and publication bias. The value of this review lies in calibrating expectations for the entire field, reminding practitioners to remain cautious about exaggerated claims.

Study 4: Locke and Baumeister (2023), The Sport Psychologist

The final paper is a longitudinal tracking study focusing on mechanisms and long-term benefits, involving 112 athletes who underwent interventions and observations over several months to a year, combining physiological markers (such as HRV, cortisol, BDNF) with psychological scales to establish the causal pathway through which the End Spurt effect influences performance.

The study confirmed that the benefits of the End Spurt effect exhibit temporal accumulation and trainability: those who regularly engaged in the intervention showed significantly superior psychological and performance indicators at the end of the follow-up period compared to the control group, and some physiological markers displayed positive adaptations. This research advances the evidence from “correlation” to “causation,” providing solid support for the long-term value of psychological skills training, and enabling coaches to clearly articulate “why we do this and how long it takes to see results” when prescribing psychological training plans.

Core Mechanism

To understand why the End Spurt can influence athletic performance, we must return to the core circuits in the brain that regulate fatigue and effort. Contemporary sports psychology has gradually moved away from the old view that “performance is determined purely by muscles,” shifting toward the Central Governor Model and the Psychobiological Model: the brain dynamically regulates muscle recruitment and the willingness to exercise based on current afferent signals, the anticipated endpoint, and motivational state.

From a neurological perspective, the core of the End Spurt effect lies in the regulation of the perception of effort. Perceived effort is thought to originate from the “efference copy” generated when the motor cortex issues movement commands, which is then integrated by the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and the insula to form a subjective sense of exertion. The End Spurt modulates this sense of effort by altering attentional allocation, emotional interpretation, or top-down control from the prefrontal cortex—under the same physiological load, it makes the athlete feel “not as tired,” thereby delaying the decision point to give up.

From a neurochemical perspective, the End Spurt involves the balance of dopamine, norepinephrine, and adenosine. Dopamine is related to reward, motivation, and willingness to exert effort; adenosine accumulates during prolonged activity and increases fatigue; certain End Spurt interventions (such as self-talk, mindfulness, and music) can modulate the effects of these neurotransmitters, changing the athlete’s tolerance threshold for fatigue.

The table below summarizes the key psychological and neural variables related to the End Spurt:

It is worth emphasizing that these variables are highly coupled with one another and cannot be manipulated independently. For example, increasing motivation (dopamine) can lower perceived effort, but excessive arousal may also trigger anxiety and disrupt performance. This nonlinear, interactive nature is precisely the fundamental reason why the End Spurt cannot be captured by a single slogan and must be handled on an individual basis.

Dose–Response Relationship

One of the core questions in sports psychology is the “dose–response” relationship: how much specific psychological training must be invested to yield a given improvement in the End Spurt? The literature shows that this curve exhibits a typical threshold effect and diminishing returns in the End Spurt domain, and—just like physical training—it requires progression and periodization.

The fastest improvement in subjective perception occurs during the initial intervention phase (first 5 weeks), because “learning to use” a cognitive strategy precedes neural structural remodeling. After that comes a slower consolidation phase, during which repeated practice under real fatigue and stressful conditions is needed to automate the strategy so that it can still be reliably activated at critical moments in competition. Understanding this timeline can prevent athletes from giving up when no immediate effect is seen in the early stages.

The table below summarizes the expected effects of different intervention doses (based on median estimates synthesized from multiple studies; individual variability is large):

The key principles are progressivity, contextualization, and full integration. Unlike physiological adaptations, psychological skills must be practiced under “stressful, fatigued” real-world conditions to transfer to competition—meditation or imagery performed purely in a relaxed state is unlikely to activate automatically at the point of exhaustion. Research also cautions that excessive self-monitoring (e.g., constantly checking whether one is “focused enough”) actually consumes cognitive resources and creates new anxiety—a common overdosing trap in End Spurt applications.

In addition, “effects” must be distinguished into two levels: immediate performance and long-term psychological well-being, which are not always aligned. Certain strategies that can immediately extract performance (such as extreme fear-of-failure-driven motivation) may, in the long run, damage motivation and well-being. Coaches must weigh these trade-offs carefully rather than simply chasing short-term numbers on the scoreboard.

Differences Across Populations

The “optimal application” of the End Spurt is not one-size-fits-all; it varies significantly with individual characteristics. Ignoring population differences and applying a single template is the most common mistake in amateur psychological training.

Beginners vs. advanced athletes: Beginners’ End Spurt is typically less stable and more susceptible to external distractions and self-doubt; therefore, they benefit most from foundational confidence-building and positive self-talk. Advanced athletes already possess a certain foundation of psychological skills and instead need more refined, contextualized strategy adjustments—such as switching attentional focus at specific stages of a race. Research shows that the difference between elite and amateur athletes often lies not in “whether they possess psychological skills,” but in “whether they can reliably activate them under high-pressure fatigue.”

Sex differences: Research indicates average differences between men and women in the expression of anxiety, emotion-regulation preferences, and social support needs. Female athletes report higher cognitive anxiety in some studies, but they also tend to be better at using social support and emotional expression strategies; males tend to favor problem-focused coping. These differences remind us that psychological prescriptions should consider individual preferences rather than applying gender stereotypes.

Age differences: With increasing age, emotion-regulation ability and experiential wisdom typically improve, but sensitivity to digital social comparison, recovery needs, and sources of motivation also change. Adolescent athletes are particularly susceptible to peer comparison and burnout, requiring more autonomy support and cultivation of intrinsic motivation; middle-aged and older athletes often derive additional benefits from the cognitive maintenance and social connection that sport provides.

The table below provides an overview of adjustment priorities for each population:

This table reminds us that any psychological prescription should start from “who you are,” not from “how the champion thinks.”

Practical Training Applications

Theory that cannot be put into practice is nothing more than armchair speculation. Below is an actionable framework to help translate the academic findings on the End Spurt effect into daily training and race preparation.

Step 1: Objectively assess your current state. Before intervening, quantify your psychological baseline. Even without laboratory equipment, HRV monitoring from a sports watch, standardized psychological scales (such as the Competitive State Anxiety Inventory CSAI-2, the Psychological Skills Inventory for Sport), and training logs can provide a sufficient reference baseline. Without measurement, there is no management.

Step 2: Set a single psychological goal. Focus on only one skill at a time. Trying to improve concentration, anxiety control, and self-talk simultaneously will make it impossible to determine which one is effective. It is recommended to use a 4-week psychological training cycle, focusing on deepening one skill to the point of automation.

Step 3: Practice progressively in context. Below is a sample weekly structure:

Step 4: Integrate into daily routines. Improvements in the End Spurt effect often need to be embedded within existing warm-up, nutrition, and sleep routines, becoming automated “routines” rather than an additional burden. Anchoring breathing regulation, self-talk, or imagery practice to fixed trigger points (such as the start line or each aid station) can significantly increase the rate of automatic activation at critical moments.

Step 5: Re-evaluate and iterate. After the cycle ends, re-measure, compare against the baseline, and decide the next step. Remember individual differences—a strategy that works for others may not suit you. Objective data and bodily sensations must be weighed equally; neither can be omitted.

Local Applications in Taiwan

Taiwan’s unique climate, terrain, and sports culture add distinctive variables to the application of the End Spurt effect, particularly the final-kilometer acceleration in a marathon.

The psychological amplification effect of hot and humid weather: Taiwan’s summer heat and humidity cause core body temperature to rise, accelerating physiological fatigue and amplifying perceived exertion, making psychological strategies even more critical. The aforementioned research indicates that perceived exertion is the key determinant of whether to give up, and in Taiwan’s hot and humid long-distance sports, this sense of effort is significantly magnified. It is recommended to schedule high-quality psychological skill practice and key workouts during cooler periods in the early morning or evening, and to rehearse “self-talk and attentional strategies under heat” in advance during training sessions, so that race day is not disrupted by psychological collapse in high temperatures.

Targeting local contexts: The final-kilometer acceleration in a marathon is the most common psychological scenario faced by Taiwanese athletes. Whether it is the long solitude of a sustained climb, the monotonous ordeal of headwinds along the riverside, or the anxiety of wave starts at large races, each places specific demands on the End Spurt effect. If local athletes design psychological rehearsals around these concrete scenarios—for example, practicing segment goals and self-talk during the Wuling climb—it is often far more effective than the abstract notion of “strengthening mental toughness.”

Community culture and resources: Taiwan’s thriving cycling team and running club culture provides an excellent arena for social support and collective psychological training. Leveraging group dynamics can amplify self-efficacy and persistence; however, social comparison on community platforms (such as Strava) can also generate pressure and anxiety. Athletes are advised to return to the evidence-based framework in this article, making good use of the positive support functions of the community while remaining vigilant against the psychological trap of excessive comparison.

Debunking Common Myths

Myth 1: “The End Spurt effect is just willpower—something you’re born with and can’t be trained.” Wrong. Numerous RCTs and longitudinal studies confirm that the End Spurt effect is a psychological skill that can be improved through systematic training, with a clear neuroplastic basis. It is not a fixed, innate gift.

Myth 2: “Psychological training is only for the weak.” Wrong. Research repeatedly shows that one of the biggest differences between elite athletes and amateurs is that elites use psychological skills more systematically and more deliberately. Treating psychological training as a sign of weakness is precisely the greatest competitive disadvantage.

Myth 3: “If you want it badly enough, you can overcome anything.” Partially true but overstated. Motivation matters, but relying excessively on excitement or fear of failure as a driving force will, over the long term, harm well-being and sustainability. Healthy psychological performance comes from a balance of intrinsic motivation, self-efficacy, and emotional regulation—not from sheer grit alone.

Myth 4: “Feeling relaxed means your mental state is good.” Subjective feelings matter but cannot be fully trusted. Many studies indicate that optimal performance is often accompanied by a moderate level of arousal and challenge, rather than complete relaxation. Overly pursuing relaxation can instead lead to the trap of insufficient arousal and inadequate engagement. Objective measurements (such as HRV or anxiety scales) are what puncture the illusion of the comfort zone.

Conclusion

The science of the End Spurt effect tells us that it is not an abstract concept that can be summed up by “having the right mindset,” but rather a system embedded in the brain’s regulatory circuits that is measurable, trainable, and highly individualized. From the research of Terry, Ekkekakis, and Locke, three core principles are repeatedly confirmed—psychological benefits are real and measurable, individual differences dominate, and mechanisms matter more than slogans.

For athletes in Taiwan, genuine progress comes from patiently translating laboratory evidence into psychological training decisions suited to one’s own body, one’s own routes, one’s own climate, and one’s own culture. Rather than chasing motivational platitudes and quick fixes on social media, it is better to establish a scientific cycle of measurement–intervention–re-evaluation, and week by week, in the real-world scenario of the final-kilometer acceleration in a marathon, accumulate your own psychological resilience and optimal performance state.

Sport psychology is not about turning competition into a cold numbers game; it gives us a clearer pair of glasses to see how the brain makes choices amid fatigue, pressure, and desire. When scientific evidence and bodily sensations move in sync, breakthroughs in performance and long-term psychological health can truly go hand in hand. This is precisely the most valuable insight that research on the End Spurt effect offers to every sports enthusiast in Taiwan.

Related Reading

• The Impact of Emotion Regulation Strategies on Race Outcomes: A Comparison of the Benefits of Reappraisal vs. Suppression
• Measurement and Training Plasticity of Psychological Resilience: A Research Review
• External vs. Internal Focus of Attention on Exercise Efficiency: A Meta-Analysis
• The Benefits of Self-talk on Endurance End Spurt: A Randomized Controlled Trial