The Impact of Climate Change on Cycling Events in Taiwan: A Physiological Prediction Study on Rising Temperatures

Based on the Journal of Applied Physiology, Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, Sports Medicine, and other international peer-reviewed journals, this article provides an in-depth analysis of the environmental physiological mechanisms behind “the impact of climate change on races and athletic performance.” It also incorporates Taiwan’s subtropical climate, mountainous terrain, and local race scenarios to offer evidence-based training and race-preparation strategies.

In the field of environmental physiology, “the impact of climate change on races and athletic performance” is one of the key variables determining whether endurance athletes can perform at their best on real racecourses. Many amateur and elite athletes focus their training on power output, pacing, and equipment, yet underestimate the enormous physiological impact of the environment—heat, cold, high altitude, humidity, and air quality. In fact, when two athletes have similar fitness and equipment, the one who better understands how to adjust strategies in response to the environment is often the one who can maintain pace in the latter stages of a race, avoiding collapse and mishaps. Taiwan’s geography is especially unique: hot and humid summers, cold and damp winters, extreme elevation changes from sea level to Wuling at 3,275 meters, plus urban air pollution and typhoon season, making environmental physiology particularly valuable in practical terms for the local sports community. This article will guide you from cellular and systemic physiological mechanisms, through empirical research in top international journals, quantitative dose-response relationships, differences in responses across populations, to directly applicable training strategies and Taiwan-specific scenarios, and finally debunk long-circulated myths—so that your understanding of “the impact of climate change on races and athletic performance” is truly built on science, not hearsay.

Review of Academic Research

Regarding the scientific exploration of “the impact of climate change on races and athletic performance,” the field of environmental physiology has accumulated rigorous and rich evidence. Below are several representative studies selected for their value in methodological design, study populations, and strength of conclusions, which together form our current understanding:

1. Smith et al. (2016). The Lancet reviewed the public health impact of climate change on outdoor exercise and heat risk.

2. Orlowski & Wiśniewski (2020). International Journal of Biometeorology projected heat load for endurance events under warming scenarios.

3. Périard et al. (2021). Physiological Reviews synthesized long-term trends in the effects of environmental heat on athletic performance.

4. Vanos et al. (2020). Temperature developed models of exercise heat risk under climate scenarios.

Taken together, these studies show that the scientific picture of “the impact of climate change on races and athletic performance” has been continuously refined as measurement techniques have advanced. Early studies typically manipulated temperature, humidity, or partial pressure of oxygen in environmental chambers, observing changes in VO₂max, time to exhaustion, or time-trial performance; subsequent research introduced ingestible core-temperature capsules, near-infrared spectroscopy, stable isotope tracers, muscle biopsies, and molecular markers, allowing us to move from “observing phenomena” to “explaining mechanisms.” Notably, most high-quality studies employed randomized crossover designs, with each participant serving under both experimental and control conditions, greatly reducing noise from individual differences. However, extrapolation of findings still requires caution: a single environmental variable controlled in the laboratory does not necessarily equate to the complex combination of heat, humidity, wind, radiation, and fatigue on a real racecourse; nor do responses from well-trained subjects necessarily apply to the average amateur. When interpreting “statistical significance” and “effect sizes,” we must also distinguish between average trends in the laboratory and practical meaning for an individual on race day—a 3% performance difference may determine placing in elite competition, while its significance for a recreational rider is relatively limited. It is precisely this careful attention to levels of evidence and scope of applicability that forms the foundation of scientific training.

Core Mechanisms

Climate change is raising global and Taiwan’s annual average temperatures and making extreme heat events more frequent, posing increasingly severe physiological challenges to outdoor endurance events. Rising temperature and humidity directly increase WBGT, raising the risk of heat exhaustion and heat stroke, shortening the hours and months in which safe exercise is possible, and lowering the ceiling on endurance performance. For Taiwan, the already hot and humid summer will become even harsher; Wuling, the Tour of East Taiwan, and marathons and triathlons across the island may be forced to adjust race dates, move start times earlier, add cooling stations and medical provisions, or even cancel in extreme years. Physiological prediction models combining warming scenarios with heat-performance relationships can estimate future heat risk and the magnitude of performance decline, helping organizers develop adaptation strategies. On the athlete level, greater emphasis must be placed on heat acclimation, individualized hydration and sodium intake, and recognition of heat illness. This is a cross-disciplinary issue combining environmental physiology, meteorology, and public health, and it reminds the sports community to incorporate climate adaptation into long-term planning.

To truly understand how “the impact of climate change on races and athletic performance” affects athletic performance, one must return to the systemic integration of thermoregulation, cardiovascular, respiratory, metabolic, and central nervous function. Environmental factors translate into measurable performance differences precisely because they act on one or more key links in this physiological chain—whether by limiting oxygen and fuel delivery, disrupting heat dissipation and fluid balance, or altering central perceptions of fatigue and exercise drive. The table below summarizes the key points of action at different physiological levels for this topic, helping you build a complete mechanistic picture:

| Physiological Level | Key Mechanisms | Significance for Athletic Performance |

|—|—|—|

| Cardiovascular system | Affects blood flow distribution, stroke volume, and circulating volume | Determines oxygen delivery and stability during prolonged exercise |

| Thermoregulation / fluid balance | Regulates heat dissipation pathways, sweat rate, and electrolyte balance | Influences the rate of core temperature rise and dehydration risk |

| Muscle and metabolism | Alters substrate utilization, enzyme activity, and contractile function | Determines sustainable power output and the timing of fatigue onset |

| Central nervous system | Modulates fatigue perception, exercise drive, and cognitive decision-making | Influences “how tired it feels” and the ability to persist and make safe judgments |

Two dimensions deserve particular emphasis: “dose-response” and “time dynamics.” The same environmental exposure, at different intensities, durations, and states of acclimation, can produce vastly different or even opposite effects—which is precisely why many popular recommendations are one-sided. The limiting factors of athletic performance also shift dynamically with context: for short-duration, high-intensity efforts, limitations stem mostly from anaerobic energy supply and local metabolism; for multi-hour endurance events, the focus shifts to the combined effects of rising core temperature, fluid imbalance, glycogen depletion, and central fatigue. “The impact of climate change on races and athletic performance” is worth in-depth exploration precisely because it can selectively affect certain of these limiting factors. Only by understanding the mechanisms can we determine “what adjustments to make in which environment, how much, and when”—rather than being led by the environment on race day. The more thoroughly you understand the mechanisms, the more flexibly you can respond across different situations such as heat, cold, high altitude, or pollution. This ability to adapt to context is precisely the dividing line between those who understand environmental physiology and those who train blindly.

Dose-Response Relationship

In environmental physiology, “dose determines effect” is a core principle. Environmental stimuli that are too low fail to reach physiological thresholds, producing no adaptation or impact; excessive exposure may exceed the body’s compensatory capacity, triggering risks such as heat injury, hypothermia, and altitude sickness. The table below summarizes the dose-response correspondence for “the impact of climate change on racing and athletic performance,” serving as the most important quantitative reference when developing training and race preparation plans:

| Dose / Condition | Physiological State | Effects and Key Points |

|—|—|—|

| Rising annual mean temperature | Elevated WBGT | Shorter safe training windows |

| Increased extreme heat events | Higher heat illness risk | Greater need for race adjustments |

| Race schedule/time adjustments | Earlier starts + cooling stations | Reduced risk |

| Athlete heat adaptation | Individualized fueling | Maintains performance and safety |

As the table shows, the effects of environmental exposure often follow a threshold or inverted U-shaped curve: before reaching an effective dose, adaptation or impact increases with dose; but beyond a certain critical point, there is not only no additional benefit, but risk and cost rise sharply. This means “finding your own optimal exposure” matters far more than “blindly pursuing extremes.” Whether it’s the daily heat dose for heat adaptation, the altitude and duration of altitude training, or exposure time in cold environments, there exists a sweet spot that balances benefit and safety. It is recommended to progressively test responses under different environmental conditions during training (not on race day), recording core temperature or heart rate, perceived exertion, power data, and recovery status to build your own environmental response profile. Remember: laboratory averages are a starting point, not the endpoint; each person’s body composition, sweat rate, acclimatization level, and genetic background will shift the optimal dose individually. Only by calibrating with your own data can you translate population science into a personal prescription.

Differences Across Populations

The impact of “climate change on racing and athletic performance” is not equal for everyone. Age, sex, training status, body size, acclimatization state, and genetic background all significantly modulate individual responses to the environment. Ignoring these differences and applying a one-size-fits-all recommendation is one of the most common errors in applied environmental physiology.

| Population Aspect | Response Characteristics | Practical Recommendations |

|—|—|—|

| Beginners vs. Advanced | Advanced athletes have more mature environmental adaptation and better tolerance, but less marginal room for adaptation | Beginners should be conservative and progressive, building foundational tolerance before increasing load |

| Male vs. Female | Differences in surface area-to-mass ratio, hormonal cycles, and sweat composition | Females should undergo individualized assessment of heat dissipation and hydration, and monitor energy availability |

| Young vs. Older | Older individuals have reduced thermoregulation, sweat gland function, and compensatory capacity | Older individuals are more sensitive to extreme environments and need greater caution and longer adaptation periods |

| Body Size Differences | Surface area, body fat, and muscle mass affect heat dissipation and heat production | Larger individuals dissipate heat less easily; smaller individuals cool faster—each carries its own risks |

When interpreting individual differences, one must also be wary of a statistical trap: studies typically report “group mean responses,” but beneath the average often lies enormous individual variability. In the same environmental intervention, some may be strong responders, some barely respond, and some may even respond in the opposite direction. This is why even if a study shows “effective on average,” you still need to confirm through your own trials which category you fall into. It is recommended to conduct personalized controlled tests: across two training sessions under similar conditions, with and without a given environmental strategy (e.g., pre-cooling, heat adaptation), compare power, core temperature, heart rate, and perceived sensation, repeating several times before drawing conclusions.

Take Taiwan’s common amateur endurance population as an example: many are masters athletes and runners over 35 who train around work schedules. This group’s thermoregulation and recovery capacity are already somewhat inferior to young elites. When facing humid-hot summers and high-altitude challenges, correct environmental strategies (heat adaptation, individualized hydration, gradual ascent) can yield relatively greater safety and performance benefits. Female athletes, meanwhile, need to pay attention to the influence of the menstrual cycle on baseline core temperature and fluid regulation, as well as whether energy availability is sufficient. After understanding population differences, you’ll realize: truly professional environmental physiology advice is always an individualized prescription that is “person-specific,” never a one-size-fits-all slogan.

Practical Training Application

Theory must ultimately translate into training plans and race courses. Below is a practical framework for converting “the impact of climate change on racing and athletic performance” into concrete training and race-day operations:

• Pre-race environmental rehearsal: All environmental strategies must be rehearsed in training first; “never try anything new on race day” is an iron rule. Whether heat adaptation, pre-cooling, or hydration pacing, the body needs time to build tolerance and proficiency.

• Periodized thinking: Align environmental adaptation with the training cycle—build tolerance in the base phase, and conduct sport-specific environmental adaptation in the pre-race phase targeting the temperature, humidity, or altitude of the goal event.

• Progressive exposure: Start with mild environmental stimuli and gradually increase load based on bodily responses, building a personalized exposure dose and timing profile to avoid injury from a single excessive exposure.

• Objective data monitoring: Combine core temperature (or heart rate drift), power, rating of perceived exertion (RPE), and urine/body weight changes to objectively assess whether environmental strategies are truly effective.

• Holistic context: Environmental adaptation is one component of training, sleep, recovery, and nutrition; no single strategy can compensate for sleep deprivation, dehydration, or flawed training design.

Using a one-week training plan as an example, different environmental scenarios can be rehearsed in key midweek sessions and weekend long rides: high-intensity days focus on maintaining power quality under target conditions and testing cooling or insulation gear; long-distance days focus on hydration and sodium pacing, thermoregulation, and long-duration gear tolerance. Through repeated rehearsal, the body can respond to the environment almost automatically on race day, freeing mental resources for pacing and tactical decisions. The most common mistake many people make is “only taking the environment seriously on race day while treating daily training casually”—this is precisely putting the cart before the horse. Daily training is the ideal laboratory for building heat tolerance, testing hydration doses, familiarizing with gear, and cultivating environmental response rhythms.

It is recommended to integrate an environmental log with your training log, recording for each key session the day’s temperature, humidity, altitude, wind conditions, environmental strategies used, bodily responses, and performance data. Over weeks to months of accumulation, the value of this personalized database will far exceed any generic guide. Furthermore, don’t overlook the often-underestimated aspect of “recovery under environmental stress”—heat or altitude slows recovery and exacerbates fatigue accumulation. The quality of recovery between consecutive training days often determines whether you can steadily accumulate training load without injury, and training load is the most fundamental engine of long-term progress. Treat environmental management as a serious part of training rather than a last-minute accessory before race day, and both your progress and safety will be markedly different.

Local Application in Taiwan

Taiwan’s unique climate, terrain, and race culture add a distinct local flavor to the application of “the impact of climate change on racing and athletic performance.” Summer heat and humidity are extreme: perceived temperatures often exceed 35°C, relative humidity frequently surpasses 80%, evaporative cooling is inefficient, and sweat and electrolyte losses far exceed the scenarios in temperate-zone research—meaning recommendations from foreign literature often need upward adjustment. In winter, the northeast monsoon brings damp cold and strong wind chill, with mountain areas posing risks of hypothermia. And the extreme elevation gain from sea level to Wuling at 3,275 meters puts high-altitude physiological challenges right at your doorstep.

Taking events such as the West-to-East Wuling climb, the Hualien-Taitung Cycling Tour, Sun Moon Lake circumnavigation, Taroko Marathon, various triathlons, and island-wide cycling challenges as examples, athletes should factor local and seasonal environmental conditions into their planning: summer races should start earlier to avoid high afternoon WBGT, and take advantage of the dense convenience store network along routes to strengthen fluid and sodium replenishment; high-altitude sections require gradual acclimatization, attention to cold protection, and awareness of altitude sickness symptoms; winter damp-cold events demand stronger windproofing, insulation, and hypothermia protection. Make good use of the Central Weather Administration’s forecasts for perceived temperature, humidity, wind speed, and air quality, converting them into daily environmental risk assessments and strategies, so that in Taiwan’s varied and demanding environment, you can balance both safety and peak performance.

Common Myth-Busting

Myth: “Climate change is far removed from athletes.” Warming is already shortening the safe training windows, raising heat risk at events, and capping endurance performance ceilings; Taiwan’s hot and humid environment is on the front line, and heat adaptation and event scheduling should be incorporated into the long-term planning of the sports community.

This type of myth spreads widely because it “sounds reasonable,” is easily passed by word of mouth, or is amplified by marketing and anecdotal experience. Yet the value of science lies in testing intuition with rigorous evidence: many seemingly obvious environmental beliefs do not hold up under controlled environmental chamber experiments and epidemiological investigations. The field of environmental physiology is especially rife with oversimplified claims that compress complex dosage, timing, individual differences, and risk into a single slogan. The next time you hear a categorical environmental recommendation, it is worth asking: “What is the level of evidence for this claim? Who is the target audience? Are the dosage, timing, and safety margins clearly defined?” Cultivating this evidence-based critical thinking is more valuable than memorizing any single conclusion, and it is a key step for athletes toward a more scientific approach and avoiding environmental harm.

Conclusion

“The impact of climate change on events and athletic performance” is a topic in environmental physiology that combines theoretical depth with practical value. From the international journal evidence reviewed in this article, it is clear that the environment’s impact on athletic performance is real and profound, but by no means unmanageable—the key lies in understanding the mechanisms, mastering the dosage, individualizing adjustments, and coordinating with overall training, recovery, and nutrition. For endurance sports enthusiasts in Taiwan, while grasping the scientific principles, it is equally important to integrate the local hot and humid climate, extreme altitude, and variable weather, transforming general rules into personalized prescriptions that suit oneself. May every cyclist and runner sweating on Wuling, in the rift valleys, and along the island-circumnavigation routes protect themselves, push their limits, and enjoy the purest joy of sport through the wisdom of environmental physiology—whether in heat, cold, high altitude, or various other challenges. Before you next step onto the race course, don’t forget—your true opponent, besides the timer, is the entire environment beneath your feet and all around you.

Related Reading

• Performance Differences Between Maritime and Continental Climates: A Taiwan Case Study
• Physiological Responses to Cold-Weather Cycling: Research on Vasoconstriction, Muscle Metabolism, and the Respiratory Tract
• Cycling Environment During Taiwan’s Northeast Monsoon: Physiological Effects of Low Temperature and Wind Chill
• Core Temperature Differences Between Morning and Evening Rides in Taiwan: Research on the Interaction Between Circadian Rhythm and Environment