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The Science and Ethics of Athlete Selection: Using the LTAD Long-Term Development Model to Turn "Early Maturity Advantage" into "Lifelong Athletic Ability"

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The Science and Ethics of Athlete Selection: Using the LTAD Long-Term Development Model to Turn "Early Maturity Advantage" into "Lifelong Athletic Ability"

Starting with the Question: “Coach, Does My Child Have Talent?”

In my 15 years of coaching athletes, the question I get asked most often—on the sidelines, in gym hallways, in post-competition rest areas—is always the same: “Coach, take a look, does my child really have talent?”

What stands out most in my memory is a fifth-grade boy from a few years ago; let’s call him A-Kai. The first time I brought him onto the field, he looked like he had cheat codes enabled among his peers—fast sprints, explosive jumps, and he held his own completely in physical contact; no one in his group could keep up with him. His parents were thrilled and asked if we could “intensify training and start early specialization.” The first thing I did wasn’t to arrange a training schedule, but to check his birth date: he was born in January of his cohort year, while several of the kids in his group who got thoroughly dominated were born in November or December. That’s a gap of nearly a full year in growth and development.

Three years later, those “late-maturing” kids gradually shot up in height and caught up in strength, and A-Kai’s “talent” didn’t look so dazzling anymore. It wasn’t that A-Kai had regressed; rather, we had nearly mistaken “early maturity” for “innate talent.” That experience was the starting point for my serious study of “athlete selection” and the “Long-Term Athlete Development (LTAD)” model.

To be honest, this kind of misjudgment is far from rare at the grassroots level in Taiwan. Our sports-focused classes and team selections are often concentrated in the upper elementary to junior high years—exactly when physiological differences among children are at their most dramatic. Add in academic pressure and limited resources, and everyone wants to “spot early who’s worth investing in.” I completely understand that mindset, but precisely because of it, the science and ethics of athlete selection deserve a serious discussion.

In this article, I want to clarify two things for you: First, what science lies behind athlete selection, and what ethical pitfalls are hidden within it; second, how LTAD—a long-term development framework adopted by many national sports systems—actually turns “transient physical advantages” into “lifelong athletic ability.” Whether you’re a team coach, an athlete’s parent, or an adult like many Taiwanese office workers who only seriously started exercising in their mid-30s, I hope you’ll finish reading this and be able to avoid some unnecessary detours.


Foundational Concept 1: Why Is Selection So Prone to “Misjudgment”?

The Relative Age Effect: “Fake Talent” Determined by Birth Month

In sports science, there is a very robust phenomenon, repeatedly validated across multiple sports, called the Relative Age Effect (RAE). Simply put: within the same selection year, children born in the early part of the year (for example, in Taiwan, where the school year is the dividing line, those born in September or October) have accumulated several months—or even nearly a full year—more in physiological development and cognitive development than those born later in the year, giving them a systematic advantage in adolescent-stage selection.

According to sports science literature, RAE has been documented in basketball, handball, swimming, soccer, taekwondo, and many other sports. It doesn’t just affect the adolescent stage; it can extend all the way into professional sports selection outcomes and overall opportunity distribution. Research also specifically points out why this effect is dangerous: youth sports often involve “early selection and early specialization.” Once a fleeting physiological maturity advantage is mistaken for “potential,” it systematically buries an entire cohort of late-maturing children who genuinely have potential.

A special note here: the advantage brought by RAE mainly comes from physiological maturation, height and weight, strength, and cognitive maturity—not from athletic talent itself. A 12-year-old who has already shot up to 170 cm and 60 kg, going up against a peer still at 150 cm and 40 kg, will naturally dominate in speed and physical contact—but whether that translates into being a good athlete at 25 is far less correlated than we might imagine.

Early Maturity Does Not Equal a Higher Ceiling

Physiologically, the timing of the adolescent peak height velocity (PHV, the period of fastest height growth) varies greatly from person to person, and girls typically experience it 1.5 to 2 years earlier than boys. Two children of the same age—one may have already passed PHV with strength and coordination rising rapidly, while the other hasn’t even entered puberty yet. This gap between biological age and chronological age is most pronounced between ages 11 and 15, which happens to be exactly the age range when many sports are most eager to “select, tier, and eliminate.”

This is the core ethical dilemma of athlete selection: We often make the most critical, most irreversible decisions at the very moment when children’s physiological differences are at their greatest.

How to Roughly Assess a Child’s “Biological Maturity”?

At the grassroots level, we don’t have medical imaging available every day, but there are several practically observable clues that can help us avoid mistaking development for talent:

Observation Indicator Meaning How to Use in the Field
Recent height changes Measure every six months; a sudden acceleration in growth rate may indicate entering PHV Proactively reduce impact load during growth spurts
Hand-foot-to-torso ratio Hands and feet grow first, torso later; coordination may temporarily become “clumsier” Don’t misjudge it as “regression”; give it time
Parental height Genetics offer reference value for maturation timing Assess tendency toward late/early maturation
Relative body size among peers Determines whether RAE and early-maturity dividends are amplifying the picture Keep an observation period for late maturers

I’ll be honest here: the above are all rough on-field judgments for coaches and cannot replace professional maturity assessments. For true precision, medical and sports science expertise (such as bone age assessment) is needed. My purpose in listing these is to remind coaches and parents “don’t mistake body size for potential,” not to suggest everyone do medical assessments at home.


Foundational Concept 2: What Is the LTAD Long-Term Development Model?

Evolution from Three Stages to Seven Stages

The LTAD model was proposed by Canadian sports scientist Istvan Balyi in the 1990s. Initially, he was commissioned by the British Amateur Swimming Association to design a framework that would allow coaches to progressively develop elite swimmers, and the first version had only three stages: Training to Train, Training to Compete, and Training to Win. Later, because of its effectiveness, it gradually evolved into a seven-stage framework covering an entire lifetime, emphasizing long-term, progressive development rather than short-term results.

This transformation itself is highly instructive: a model originally created to “produce elites” eventually evolved into a framework that serves both mass participation and elite development, spanning from preschool age to lifelong activity. What it aims to solve is precisely the selection trap mentioned earlier—stop letting short-term results determine a person’s athletic destiny.

It’s worth noting that since LTAD was introduced, it has accumulated considerable discussion and criticism. Some scholars argue that its stage-age divisions are too neat, “boxing in” complex individual development, while others question whether “development windows” have been over-absolutized. From a consulting standpoint, I think these criticisms are healthy: LTAD should best be treated as a philosophy and a map for thinking about long-term development, not a prescription to be copied box by box. Using it to remind ourselves “don’t eliminate too early, don’t specialize too early, respect developmental rhythms” matters far more than memorizing exactly which ages belong to which stage.

LTAD Seven-Stage Overview

The table below outlines the common seven-stage LTAD framework and the key focus of each stage. Note: the ages are approximate ranges, and they differ between boys and girls; in practice, physiological maturity (whether close to/past PHV) should be the guide, not rigidly applied ages.

Stage Approximate Age (Boys/Girls) Core Goal Training Focus
1. Active Start 0–6 years Build foundational movement through play Play, large muscle group coordination, balance, social interaction and imagination
2. FUNdamentals 6–9 / 6–8 years Develop fundamental movement and overall athletic ability Agility, balance, coordination (ABC), emphasis on “having fun”
3. Learn to Train 9–12 / 8–11 years Build a broad base of movement skills Wide range of skills, exposure to multiple sports, avoid early specialisation
4. Train to Train 12–16 / 11–15 years Build aerobic and strength foundations Align aerobic work with PHV, gradually introduce strength, accumulate volume
5. Train to Compete 16–18 / 15–17 years Specialisation and competition preparation Sport-specific technique, conditioning, race pacing, mental skills
6. Train to Win 18+ years Pursue peak performance Highly individualised, periodised, peaking management
7. Active for Life Any age Stay physically active for life Transition from competition to recreation, health and community engagement

Key Concept: Windows of Opportunity

A core LTAD concept is the “windows of opportunity”: certain athletic qualities (such as speed, aerobic capacity, strength) gain the greatest developmental benefit when trained at specific growth time points; missing that window doesn’t stop progress, but reaching one’s full potential ceiling becomes harder. For example, the speed window often falls in earlier childhood, while the aerobic window is often linked to the period around PHV.

Here, as a consultant, I must be honest: the “windows of opportunity” is a great teaching metaphor, but the academic community still debates its “absolute critical period” claims. A more robust understanding is that these are “sensitive periods with higher training efficiency,” not “deadlines where all is lost if missed.” So treat them as “a reference for prioritising training,” not a reason for anxiety. This is precisely why I don’t fabricate precise numbers and prefer giving you ranges and principles.


Practical Approaches: How to Do “Responsible Talent Identification” and “Stage-Based Training”?

Approach 1: Use “Biological Age” to Adjust Talent ID, Not Just Results

Back to A-Kai’s example. If I had known to do the following back then, I wouldn’t have nearly misjudged him:

  1. Record birth month and compare against the selection year to be alert to RAE.
  2. Roughly estimate physiological maturity: track height changes, observe whether the growth spurt has begun (note: precise assessment requires professionals; parents’ self-assessment is for reference only).
  3. Don’t eliminate athletes based on a single test: don’t weight items like speed and contact too heavily, which favour “current body-size advantages.”
  4. Preserve opportunities for late maturers: give children who haven’t developed yet a longer observation period; don’t label them “untalented” at age 12 or 13.

How Can Talent ID Systems Be Designed Fairer?

Beyond individual coach judgement, there are some internationally discussed approaches at the systemic level worth considering for Taiwan’s grassroots:

  • Bio-banding: group not just by birth year but also by physiological maturity, so early and late maturers compete and are evaluated under more comparable conditions.
  • Delay final elimination: push “irreversible selection” as far back as possible, making key classifications after physiological differences narrow (late adolescence).
  • Multi-dimensional assessment: don’t let a single fitness test decide everything; include learning speed, technical quality, game understanding, and psychological traits.
  • Reserve spots for late maturers: deliberately keep places in development squads for late maturers who are improving quickly.

These aren’t about denying competition; they’re about making competition based on closer-to-real potential rather than temporary body-size advantages. This echoes a major direction in sports science in recent years: shifting from systems that reward transient physical advantages to models that cultivate long-term potential and reduce structural bias.

Approach 2: Training Dose and Content by Stage

What many parents and beginner coaches most want to know is “so how much should we train per week?” The table below is a conservative reference range I’ve compiled from common LTAD practices across countries (not a rigid prescription; always adjust based on individual circumstances and professional guidance):

Development Stage Recommended Weekly Structured Activity Specific/Multi-Sport Ratio Strength Training My Practical Advice
FUNdamentals (6–9 years) Play-based, no emphasis on volume Almost entirely multi-sport Bodyweight games primarily The key is “they want to come back,” not results
Learn to Train (9–12 years) Low-to-moderate volume, varied Multi-sport > specific Movement learning, light loads Trying 2–3 sports a year is healthy
Train to Train (12–16 years) Volume begins to accumulate Specific sport share increases Gradually introduce loading, emphasise technique Align with PHV; don’t pile on impact loads during growth spurts
Train to Compete (16–18 years) Higher, periodised Specific sport dominant Systematic strength and periodisation Mental skills and recovery are equally important
Active for Life (adults) At least 150 minutes of moderate intensity weekly Based on interest Resistance training twice weekly The goal is “keep moving for life”

The “150 minutes of moderate intensity weekly” in the last row corresponds to common general health guidelines for adult physical activity across countries (about 150–300 minutes of moderate-intensity aerobic activity weekly, plus resistance training at least twice a week). This is the baseline for the broader Taiwanese adult exercising population, not an athletic standard.

Approach 3: Using Heart Rate Zones for Intensity Layering (For Late Adolescents and Adults)

When it comes to training intensity, many athletes initially just “go all out,” which leads to injury or over-fatigue. Here’s a common heart rate zone framework (roughly categorised by percentage of max heart rate; individual variation is large, so this is only a conceptual reference):

Zone Approximate Intensity (% Max HR) Subjective Feel Primary Purpose
Z1 Recovery ~50–60% Very easy, can sing Recovery, warm-up
Z2 Base Aerobic ~60–70% Can hold a smooth conversation Build aerobic base, fat metabolism
Z3 Tempo ~70–80% Talking becomes harder Improve aerobic endurance
Z4 Threshold ~80–90% Can only say a few words Improve lactate threshold
Z5 Maximal ~90–100% Barely able to speak VO2max, anaerobic capacity

Please note: don’t apply the old “220 minus age” formula as a precise value for “max heart rate” in the table above. That’s only a very rough estimate, with individual error up to a dozen or more beats per minute (bpm). For true precision, you need field testing or professional assessment. For adolescents in their growth spurt, Z2—where they feel comfortable and can talk—should form the bulk of training, with high-impact, maximal-intensity work pushed to later stages.


Common Mistakes and Corrections

Over years of coaching, I’ve seen too many well-intentioned approaches that backfire. Here are the most common ones, and how I would correct them.

Mistake 1: Early Specialization

Phenomenon: Children as young as 8 or 9 only train in one sport, with multiple sessions per week, and don’t touch anything else.
Problem: The movement repertoire is too narrow, the risk of repetitive-use injuries rises, psychological burnout occurs, and athletic careers are shortened.
Correction: During the Learn to Train stage, encourage multi-sport participation; true specialization, within the LTAD framework, is typically only progressively emphasized after adolescence, near or after PHV. A few sports where “early specialization is beneficial” (such as gymnastics, diving, figure skating) are exceptions, and they require highly professional injury monitoring.

Mistake 2: Treating “Winning from the Start” as the Only KPI

Phenomenon: In elementary and middle school, there’s a frantic push to pile up competitions and trophies.
Problem: Short-term results are heavily influenced by the early-maturation dividend, have low predictive power for long-term development, and can drive away late-maturing children with potential.
Correction: Shift the evaluation focus from “how many wins” to “movement quality, learning speed, and enjoyment of training.” This also echoes recent calls from the sports science community: shift from a system that rewards transient physical advantages to a model that cultivates long-term potential and reduces structural bias.

Mistake 3: Ignoring Injury Risk During the Growth Spurt

Phenomenon: A child is in the middle of a growth spurt, yet coaches still increase running volume, jumping, and impact loads as usual.
Problem: Around PHV, the bone growth plates are not yet mature, and tendon and bone growth rates are out of sync, making this a high-risk period for growth-plate-related injuries, Achilles tendon and knee pain (e.g., common issues like tibial tuberosity or calcaneal apophysitis).
Correction: During the growth spurt, proactively reduce impact loads and increase flexibility and movement control; if a child repeatedly complains of anterior knee pain or heel pain, don’t push through it. Taiwan’s NHI makes medical access convenient—seek early evaluation from orthopedics, rehabilitation, or sports medicine clinics.

Mistake 4: Adult Recreational Athletes “Jumping Straight into a Train to Win Mindset”

Phenomenon: A sedentary office worker in their 30s, inspired by a hype video, wants to compete in intervals and massive volume in the first week.
Problem: Going high-intensity without a base phase leads to injury, overtraining, and even potential cardiovascular risks.
Correction: Adults also have their own “LTAD”—first spend a few weeks building Zone 2 aerobic base and basic strength before talking about advanced work. Taiwan’s summers are hot and humid; for outdoor exercise, pay extra attention to hydration, electrolytes, and heat injury—don’t force training at noon.


Actionable Advice for Readers at Different Levels

If You Are a “Sports Parent”

  • Don’t label your child based on birth month. A September-born child temporarily leading doesn’t mean more talent; a December-born child temporarily behind doesn’t mean less potential.
  • Encourage “playing many sports” during elementary school; don’t rush to invest resources in a single specialty.
  • Treat “does he still want to go train” as the most important indicator. The primary goal of sports is to make children love moving, not to win in elementary school.
  • During the growth spurt, if your child repeatedly complains of knee or heel pain, seek medical attention early—don’t just “tough it out.”

If You Are a “Grassroots Coach”

  • When selecting athletes, look at both chronological age and biological maturity, and keep a longer observation period for late maturers.
  • Avoid using a single fitness test to eliminate people; incorporate learning speed and movement quality into the assessment.
  • Arrange training priorities according to the LTAD stages: when it’s time to build foundations, don’t rush to chase results.
  • Treat “developmental windows” as priority references rather than deadlines, to avoid creating anxiety for parents and athletes.

If You Are an “Adult Recreational Athlete”

  • First, accept one thing: you are also on an LTAD path, just in the “lifelong activity” stage, with the goal of staying active for life.
  • Use a “base first, intensity later” rhythm: focus on Zone 2 aerobic and basic strength for the first few weeks.
  • Give yourself a weekly baseline: about 150 minutes of moderate-intensity aerobic exercise + 2 resistance training sessions.
  • If you have chronic conditions (diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, etc.) or a family history, consult a physician and get individualized adjustments before starting a new exercise program—don’t blindly copy any online training plan.

A few practical reminders for the Taiwan context: Taiwan’s summers are hot and humid, with heat index often exceeding 35°C. For outdoor exercise, avoid midday sun, pay attention to hydration and electrolytes; if dizziness, nausea, or cessation of sweating occurs, stop immediately and cool down—seek medical care if severe. For those who eat out often, pay attention to post-training protein and carbohydrate intake; if a bento box lacks vegetables and protein, supplement with a tea egg or unsweetened soy milk—don’t have every meal be only starch and fried food. If you take medication for chronic conditions (e.g., blood pressure or blood sugar medication), exercise can affect blood pressure and blood sugar responses—be sure to have a physician evaluate the combination of exercise and medication, and never stop or change medication on your own. Taiwan’s NHI makes medical access convenient; don’t tough out sports injuries—orthopedics, rehabilitation, and sports medicine clinics are all good options.


Special Feature: How Does “Talent Identification” Differ in Cycling and Endurance Sports?

Because this article is under the cycling science category, I especially want to discuss how talent identification logic for endurance sports (especially cycling) differs greatly from ball sports and gymnastics.

Endurance Sports Are More Suited to “Late Selection and Cross-Discipline Transfer”

Endurance sports like cycling, triathlon, and road running have several characteristics: First, aerobic capacity development is highly correlated with the period around PHV—what teenagers build is an aerobic foundation, not race results; Second, the “early-maturation dividend” has relatively less impact on contact and power sports, and athletes’ peak ages are generally later—many road cyclists and ultramarathon runners reach their best form between 28 and 35; Third, they are highly suited for talent transfer—many excellent cyclists have transferred from other endurance sports like swimming, trail running, or rowing.

This means: eliminating a late-maturing child too early in a sport like cycling is a particularly regrettable mistake. Because endurance sports rely on an aerobic engine and mental resilience accumulated over many years—and these two things are precisely what are least visible in short-term teenage results. A middle schooler who isn’t fast yet may simply have an underdeveloped aerobic system and an immature body, not a “lack of talent.” I once coached a child who was deemed by the track and field team in middle school as “not fast enough, no future.” He later switched to road cycling, and with exceptional aerobic endurance and mental resilience, his performance rose steadily after high school. His “disadvantage” on the track (lack of absolute speed) was not a problem on the road bike, which requires sustained, steady output over long periods.

Stage-by-Stage Priorities for Young Cyclists

Stage Cycling Training Focus Common Mistakes
Learn to Train (9–12 years) Bike handling, balance, control, playing on trails and pump tracks Getting on a trainer too early and hammering power
Train to Train (12–16 years) Lots of Zone 2 aerobic, skills, group riding etiquette Adding heavy climbing and sprint volume during growth spurts, ignoring knee pain
Train to Compete (16–18 years) Introducing power meters, threshold and intervals, periodization Chasing watts too early, neglecting recovery

Taiwan’s terrain is actually very well-suited for endurance talent identification: in the north there are classic climbs like Yangmingshan and Fengguizui, in the central region there’s Wuling as a benchmark long climb, plus year-round riding conditions and an active community. But precisely because the climbing culture is so prevalent, teenagers are more easily encouraged to “chase climbing watts too early.” I want to remind everyone: during the adolescent growth spurt, the risk of repetitive load on the knee joint from high-intensity climbing is not low—better to keep volume in easy aerobic and skills, and push power pursuits to a later stage.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q1: My child was born in December and is always at the bottom of the team. Should we give up?
A: Not yet. Being at the bottom is likely due in large part to the relative age effect and late maturation, rather than a lack of talent. Give them time to develop, and focus on “whether they still enjoy the sport” and “whether their skills are improving,” rather than on rankings.

Q2: Won’t multi-sport participation make a child “a jack of all trades, master of none”?
A: During childhood and early adolescence, both evidence and practical experience support multi-sport exposure—it broadens the movement repertoire, reduces repetitive-use injuries, and extends athletic longevity. True specialization, within the LTAD framework, is typically only progressively emphasized near or after the peak height velocity (PHV).

Q3: I’m 35, sedentary, and somewhat overweight. Is it too late to start exercising now?
A: It’s not too late at all. The final stage of LTAD is literally called “Active for Life,” with the goal of staying active for a lifetime. Start with a “foundation first, intensity later” approach, accumulating moderate-intensity aerobic exercise and two resistance training sessions per week. If you have chronic conditions or a family history of illness, consult a physician for an individualized assessment before starting.

Q4: If I’ve missed the developmental windows, is it too late?
A: No. A more robust way to understand developmental windows is as “sensitive periods with higher returns on investment,” not as “deadlines that, once missed, are gone forever.” People of any age who start training will improve; it’s just that the “return on investment” for different abilities varies depending on when you invest in them.

Q5: Will strength training stunt a teenager’s growth?
A: Under the conditions of qualified supervision, progressive loading, and an emphasis on movement quality, age-appropriate resistance training is widely considered safe and beneficial for adolescents. What you should actually worry about is injury from “poor technique and haphazard loading,” not the common myth that “lifting weights itself stunts growth.” If you’re unsure, seek assessment from a qualified coach or sports medicine professional.

Q6: If I’m only starting to exercise as an adult, is it still necessary to follow the stages?
A: Absolutely. Skipping the foundation phase and jumping straight into high intensity is the most common cause of sports injuries and overtraining in adults. Spend a few weeks building your aerobic base and fundamental movement patterns first, and your body will reward you with “fewer injuries and greater sustainability.”


A Comprehensive Case Study: Putting the Concepts Together

Let’s return to A-Kai. If time could be rewound, this is how I would guide him:

During elementary school (Learn to Train), I wouldn’t rush into specialization or increase training volume just because he was dominating his peers. Instead, I’d have him try different sports to broaden his movement repertoire, and I’d privately communicate with his parents about the RAE, reminding them not to overinterpret short-term results. When he entered junior high and began his growth spurt (approaching PHV), I would proactively reduce impact loads, shifting the focus to movement control, flexibility, and aerobic conditioning, while closely monitoring his knees and heels. After he passed his growth spurt and his physical structure stabilized (Train to Compete), I would then progressively and systematically increase sport-specific training and strength work.

At the same time, for those late-maturing kids he used to dominate, I wouldn’t cut any of them too early. Instead, I’d give them the time and the platform to catch up developmentally. By doing this, A-Kai might not win the most trophies in elementary school, but he’d be more likely to keep a healthy body, a passion for sport, and a long-term development curve that hasn’t been prematurely overdrawn by the “early-maturation dividend”—and that’s exactly what LTAD wants to give every child.


Conclusion: Talent Identification Is Science, But Also Ethics

I often tell young coaches this: The hardest part of talent identification isn’t figuring out who’s strongest right now; it’s not closing the door on a child at the very age when they’re most likely to be misjudged.

Talent identification is science: we have tools like the relative age effect, biological maturation, and developmental windows to help us see more clearly. But it’s also ethics: when we make the most consequential decisions about a child during the period of greatest physiological variability, we have a responsibility to be humble, to give late maturers a chance, and to place “cultivating a lifetime of athletic ability” ahead of “winning in elementary school.”

The most precious thing about the LTAD model isn’t the seven neatly named stages; it’s the values behind them—sport is a lifelong endeavor. Whether you’re coaching a future star or you’re someone in your thirties just starting to exercise again, this framework reminds us: take it slow, build the foundation, respect the body’s developmental rhythm, and you’ll go further.

If this article could leave you with just one sentence, I hope it’s this: Don’t judge how far a child (or yourself) can go in life by where they are right now. The early-maturation dividend will fade, the late-maturing potential will emerge, and what truly determines long-term development is whether you did the right things at the right stages and whether you kept your passion for sport alive. Stretch out the timeline, and the way you view talent identification, training, and your own body will become more forgiving—and smarter. That is what LTAD wants to teach us.


This article is for educational purposes and does not replace individualized diagnosis and treatment advice from physicians, physical therapists, or nutritionists. If you or your child have chronic diseases, injuries, or special health conditions, please consult qualified medical and sports professionals for an individualized assessment before starting or adjusting an exercise program.


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