Workload Risk Assessment
Use TSS and acute:chronic workload ratio to judge whether this week is a load spike.
TSS = hours x IF² x 100, and IF = NP / FTP. ACWR divides this week's load by the past four-week average and is often used to flag sudden spikes. Gabbett (2016) described the "training-injury prevention paradox" in elite athletes: avoiding high load entirely leaves the body without protective adaptation and more injury-prone; the real risk factor is a sudden spike, not high load itself — an ACWR between 0.8-1.3 is the sweet spot for lowest injury risk, and gradually building high chronic load is actually protective. This tool is not a medical diagnosis and should be interpreted with sleep, HRV, subjective fatigue and pain signals.
Sources: Gabbett 2016, Br J Sports Med